Labour is the best placed party to beat the Conservatives in North Somerset and kick out Liam Fox.

Polling

The polling company ElectoralCalculus is now predicting a Labour win in North Somerset at the next general election. Their latest data suggests Labour now has a predicted chance of winning of  52% compared to the Tories’ 45%.

Other parties – the Liberal Democrats and Greens – have a 3% and 0% chance of winning respectively. If Liberal Democrat and Green voters want to get rid of Liam Fox they must vote tactically for Labour. Labour and the Tories are neck-and-neck so any votes for the Lib Dems and Greens risk letting Liam Fox slip back in.

Past general elections

The polling data is backed up by the results of the last three general elections.

In 2015, 2017 and 2019 Labour came second to the Conservatives in North Somerset. The Lib Dems and Greens were distant third and fourth respectively.

Labour needs tactical votes from Lib Dems and Greens in order to beat Liam Fox. In 2019, Labour was 17,539 votes away from the Tories. If Lib Dem and Green voters had voted tactically for Labour, North Somerset would have been within just 3,547 votes of kicking out Dr Fox.

Recent by-elections

Recent by-elections prove that Labour is now capable of overturning huge Tory majorities in seats like North Somerset:

• Mid-Bedfordshire (Oct 2023): Labour overturned a 25,000 Tory majority. Mid-Bedforshire has very similar demographics to North Somerset
• Tamworth (Oct 2023): Labour overturned a 20,000 Tory majority
• Selby and Ainsty (July 2023): Labour overturned another 20,000 Tory majority.

These results make it clear that Labour can win in seats like North Somerset with the support of tactical Lib Dem and Green voters.